2021 Global Outlook & the Minsky Risk

Ron Wil­liam will out­line a beha­vi­oral tech­ni­cal ana­ly­sis frame­work, enhan­ced by mar­ket timing, as high­ligh­ted by a late-cycle rare exhaus­ti­on pat­tern on the S&P500. This fol­lows war­ning shot over­bought reac­tions fol­lo­wing mul­ti­ple “irra­tio­nal exu­berance” greed sen­ti­ment rea­dings sin­ce August 2020. Most nota­ble was the over­c­row­ding of lar­ge tech­no­lo­gy equi­ty posi­ti­ons in the opti­ons mar­ket, with the put-to-call ratio hit­ting mul­ti­year extre­mes based on line­ar extra­po­la­ti­ons of the “V” shaped reco­very and omni­po­tent cen­tral bank poli­cy. Ron will also dis­cuss timing models, which pre­dic­ted the 2020 pan­de­mic-led crash and now signal fur­ther asym­me­tric risk into 2021.
Ron Wil­liam, CFTe, MSTA
Mar­ket Stra­te­gist | Edu­ca­tor | Per­for­mance Coach

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