IFTA2020: Do market’s face a potential “Minsky” moment collapse?

If so, then what is likely the cri­sis-oppor­tu­ni­ty ahead and what are the best stra­te­gies for opti­mi­zing risk?

Ron Wil­liam will out­line a beha­viou­ral tech­ni­cal ana­ly­sis frame­work, as high­ligh­ted by a late-cycle rare exhaus­ti­on pat­tern on the S&P500.

This fol­lows war­ning shot over­bought reac­tions, after mul­ti­ple “irra­tio­nal exu­berance” greed sen­ti­ment rea­dings in August. Most nota­ble was over­c­row­ding of lar­ge tech equi­ty posi­ti­ons in the opti­ons mar­ket, with the put-to-call ratio hit­ting mul­ti-year extre­mes, based on line­ar extra­po­la­ti­ons of the “V” shape reco­very and omni­po­tent Fed Put.

Ron will also dis­cuss timing models, which pre­dic­ted the recent shake-out in late August-ear­ly Sep­tem­ber and signal fur­ther asym­me­tric into this nega­ti­ve sea­so­na­li­ty peri­od, weig­hed by lar­ger cycle forces such as the decen­ni­al pat­tern and USA pre­si­den­ti­al elections.

Ron Wil­liam, CMT, MSTA, is an accom­plished mar­ket stra­te­gist, edu­ca­tor and trader, with 17-years of finan­cial indus­try expe­ri­ence, working for lea­ding eco­no­mic rese­arch and insti­tu­tio­nal firms; pro­du­cing macro rese­arch and tra­ding stra­te­gies. He spe­cia­li­zes in macro, semi-dis­cre­tio­na­ry ana­ly­sis, dri­ven by cycles and pro­prie­ta­ry timing models.

Ron also ser­ves as an acti­ve tra­ding men­tor spe­cia­li­zing in tra­ding psy­cho­lo­gy, using the NLP model & Van Tharp Peak Per­for­mance™. Pre­vious­ly, Ron was a seni­or Tac­ti­cal & Mar­ket Timing Stra­te­gist at the ECU Group, a Glo­bal Macro Invest­ment & Advi­so­ry Firm. He was part of the Mul­ti-Asset Rese­arch & Advi­so­ry Team, hea­ded by Robin Grif­fiths, app­ly­ing his signa­tu­re “Road­map” cycle model.

Ron’s work, as part of his cur­rent insti­tu­tio­nal mar­ket advi­so­ry firm (RWA), acqui­red glo­bal indus­try reco­gni­ti­on with the 2014 / 2013 Fina­list Award for “Best Inde­pen­dent Rese­arch House for FX” and 2012 Fina­list Award for “Best Tech­ni­cal Ana­lyst of the year”. His mar­ket insights are fea­tured regu­lar­ly across nota­ble indus­try publi­ca­ti­ons and finan­cial media pro­grams; most recent­ly fea­turing US Pre­si­den­ti­al Elec­tion Cycle ana­ly­sisGBP/USD Brexit impact & EUR/USD Pari­ty risk.

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