IFTA2020: Time-series analysis of Japanese mutual fund performance: Considerations on asset flow and return

After a series of insti­tu­tio­nal reforms to pro­mo­te “a flow from savings to invest­ments,” Japa­ne­se mutu­al funds have come under the spot­light as a poten­ti­al­ly useful way to build assets in Japan’s aging socie­ty. This paper, the­r­e­fo­re, looks at the main trends in the Japa­ne­se open-end fund mar­ket over the past 20 years and then uses time-series ana­ly­sis focu­sing on asset flow and return to ana­ly­ze Japa­ne­se open-end funds over­all and by pro­duct cate­go­ry. Net asset value (NAV) was bro­ken down into net asset value per share (NAVPS) and unit num­ber, and the rela­ti­on bet­ween chan­ging rates of NAVPS and tho­se of unit num­ber was exami­ned. The results show a cor­re­la­ti­on with a time lag in some cate­go­ries (e.g., unit num­ber for the cur­rent month tends to rise when the pre­vious mon­th’s NAVPS has risen).

Koki Noza­wa, MFTA, is a fund ana­lyst with Insti­tu­te of Asset Manage­ment Rese­arch at Nik­ko Rese­arch Cen­ter, Inc. Nik­ko Rese­arch Cen­ter, Inc is a lea­ding rese­arch firm that assists invest­ment com­pa­nies, insti­tu­tio­nal inves­tors and secu­ri­ties firms in their invest­ment pro­duct, mar­ke­ting, dis­tri­bu­ti­on, cus­to­mer reten­ti­on and busi­ness deve­lo­p­ment efforts.

 He offers port­fo­lio ana­ly­sis, deve­lo­p­ment of NBA* invest­ment trust/stock models, rese­arch and ana­ly­sis of invest­ment trusts and hedge funds, and other tools to pro­vi­de infor­ma­ti­on and con­sul­ting ser­vices on asset manage­ment to a wide ran­ge of inves­tors, inclu­ding finan­cial insti­tu­ti­ons, edu­ca­tio­nal insti­tu­ti­ons and other public-inte­rest cor­po­ra­ti­ons and non-lis­ted com­pa­nies. He also offers finan­cial insti­tu­ti­ons con­sul­ting ser­vices from an Asset-Lia­bi­li­ty Manage­ment (ALM) per­spec­ti­ve to ensu­re effi­ci­ent invest­ment risk management.

(*)  NBA: Nik­ko Bond Ana­ly­sis is a sys­tem offe­red by SMBC Nik­ko Secu­ri­ties Inc. to pri­ma­ri­ly finan­cial insti­tu­ti­ons and other cor­po­ra­te inves­tors for mana­ging and ana­ly­zing finan­cial products.

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